Kent County Council: How the Parties Are Facing in Crucial Poll

Too close to call? - part 2

Candidates are battling it out for the prize of running one of the largest county councils in the country, but the poll on May 1st looks like being too close to call.

Here’s how I see the challenges facing the parties in the scramble for votes…

Liberal Democrats

The party often punches above its weight in local council elections, and Kent is an election battlefield where the party hopes it can make gains. It appeals to Conservative malcontents who can’t bring themselves to switch to Labour and to those unwilling to back Conservative candidates.

In the previous county council election, however, it performed modestly, making just one gain but losing another as the Conservatives secured a comfortable majority.

The party has recovered support under the leadership of Ed Davey, whose willingness to try out his skills in various stunts has brought him to the public’s attention. It has surprised many with its successes in parliamentary by-elections, confounding many with victories over the Conservatives.

And in Kent, it has focused attention in places like Tunbridge Wells, steadily chipping away at the Conservative stronghold.

It made a historic breakthrough in the general election, winning Tunbridge Wells. It believes changing social demographics suggest the electorate is no longer an area populated by retired, generally well-heeled and well-off voters who were once a byword for true blue heartland.

But the issue for voters is whether the party can sustain and build on that crucial ingredient, momentum.

Best result: Chalks up enough gains to have a hand in forming some kind of coalition - but not with the unlikely bedfellows of the Reform party.

Worst result: Fails to make sufficient gains to make it the leading opposition in a rainbow alliance

The Labour Party

County councils are not generally regarded as natural Labour territory, and Kent has provided limited political nourishment over the years in terms of its performance in elections in areas traditionally regarded as safe Tory shires. The timing in the political cycle makes for a tricky backdrop, with voters having the first chance to register their views on how the Keir Starmer-led government is faring.

Limited success on its dealing with key Kent issues - stopping small boats crossing the Channel with migrants being chief among them - makes for a less propitious environment for the party.

With five members defending their County Hall seats, it is hard to see where they might gain ground; coupled with apathy and disaffection among its ranks, the election might just see the party wiped out completely.

Good result: Hanging on to its existing seats would probably satisfy party chiefs.

Bad result: Potentially an outside chance of losing all its seats.

The Green Party

If there is one party that can legitimately claim to have had the most far-reaching advances in terms of council elections, it is the Green Party.

After years of dogged campaigning and limited success, it has, in recent years, made significant strides towards being a credible political organisation. In 2021, it returned five councillors to KCC, par with the Labour party. Since then, its fortunes have improved further and it now leads two other authorities - Folkestone and Hythe and Maidstone - and has a rising number of councillors across Kent’s districts and boroughs.

In 2021, it decapitated two Tory county councillors in Tonbridge and Malling - both at the time cabinet members who realised too late in the day they were under threat.

It may be a tough ask to improve on its numbers on KCC, but the party has helped place issues like water pollution on the agenda, along with the risks of flooding caused by new developments.

Good result: Holds on to its existing county councillors and secures more to ensure a role in some kind of coalition.

Bad result: Loses seats on KCC and is not invited to form some kind of joint administration.