Making Plans for Nigel
Splits in the Reform party could cost it votes
When Nigel Farage failed to win the seat of Thanet South in 2015, he promptly announced that he would stand aside as Ukip leader - a pre-election commitment he had made before the poll.
He did so on the clifftop overlooking Margate in a hastily convened press conference where bleary-eyed journalists threw questions at him about his future.
He responded that as a politician who kept his promises, he had no alternative - but then tantalised the press pack by declaring that while he would give up the leadership, he hadn’t ruled out the idea of standing again for the job.
It was a characteristic display of political chutzpah from the man who enjoyed a reputation as a straight-talker and someone who appealed to many voters because - as he often reminded us - he was not like the others.
Fast forward to June last year and there was another, more profound, change of heart from the man who led Ukip, then the Brexit Party and was the erstwhile leader of the Reform Party.
Just three days after announcing at a press conference in Dover that he had decided he would not be standing as a candidate in the general election, the Reform party called another press conference at which - yes, you guessed it - he said he had changed his mind and would be announcing his candidacy for Clacton, an Essex seat where the party had a loyal fan base.
Asked why he had changed his mind about standing, he said he did not want to let people down and sensed he could do much more as a potential candidate.
It was a striking about-turn but Farage dressed it up as a wholly reasonable - almost honourable - change of heart.
Come the election, the Reform party achieved what it had long wanted, namely representation in Parliament.
It returned five MPs, including Farage, but in recent days, the five have been reduced to four with the suspension of Rupert Lowe amid allegations that he bullied office staff and perhaps more profoundly, was openly critical of the leadership.
This spat is more than just internal yah-boo politics within a fractious party and rumbles of unease among party members. It reveals what some think: that control of the party is vested in Farage in an unhealthy way and for the first time, that there are splits which will not play well with the electorate when council elections take place later this year.
Kent remains an important battleground and target for the Reform party at these elections - largely because of the continuing focus on the thousands of migrants crossing the Channel and landing at Dover.
Let’s rewind to 2013…
The year when Ukip came perilously close to winning outright control of Kent County Council, with a frustrated electorate venting its anger at the failings of the Conservative party, particularly over that issue.
But normal service seemed to have resumed in 2017, with Ukip losing every single seat it had gained in 2013 after the referendum on whether to stay in the EU went the way of Brexit.
With Brexit seemingly resolved, the party underwent a significant change, its new name signalling that it would campaign across all issues, not just migration.
A populist agenda underscored its position on key issues and Farage has used his considerable political guile to fashion what was sometimes described as a movement rather than a party.
His challenge now is to find a way to reassure voters that the party is not about to implode; nor has it not been absorbed into the mainstream and it remains on the side of ‘ordinary’ voters, not the political establishment.
The party will view its recent victory in a by-election in a division in Dartford, which had been held by an independent, as an encouraging sign for the Reform party and one that will cause concern among the Conservatives.
The poll in May will offer a glimpse of where all the parties stand. If the Reform party remains riven by internal divisions and splits, it could lose some of those who were initially attracted to it on the strength of its mantra that the party was not like the others.
Who would benefit?
You could argue a case that it could be the Conservatives but they too have their divisions; any sign of it teaming up with the Reform party could well trigger its own decline.
Mid-term elections are notoriously tricky for the government as voters take the chance to give it a bloody nose either by not voting or voting for another party.
The extent to which voters are fed up will only be known when the ballot boxes are emptied and counted on May 2…